For now, the situation between Russia, Ukraine, and the US remains largely unchanged. Russia is still maintaining over 100,000 troops at Ukraine's border. The US remains allied with Ukraine and is threatening further sanctions against Russia should they invade. While President Vladimir Putin has declared that the implementation of further sanctions by the US would be a "colossal mistake" that could lead to a complete breakdown of relations, the US is maintaining its threat. The US is also not conceding to Russian requests for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to decrease its presence in Eastern Europe or allow Ukraine to join NATO.
While neither country has committed to making concessions at this time, Putin has agreed to participate in US-Russia diplomatic talks led by US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman on January 10, Russia-NATO talks on January 12, and another upcoming conference in Europe at a later time. Though a step in the right direction in opening dialogue, time will tell if these talks will prove successful in deescalating current tensions. Current US intelligence findings have indicated that we may see Russian military action towards Ukraine "as soon as early 2022."
So what does it mean for Russian and Ukrainian diaspora in the US if Russia invades Ukraine? According to a local DMV diaspora member, not much. When asked if further sanctions on Russia would impact the sale of traditionally Russian items in the US, they said that they thought the impact would be minimal. Since Russia has been under heavy sanctions for so long - particularly since the 2014 annexation of Crimea - diaspora have found work arounds to get their favorite items. Bypassing the constraints of sanctions on Russia includes everything from routing goods through countries not under US sanctions, to diaspora manufacturing traditional goods here in the US.
What they say is more detrimental to the sale of traditional Russian items in the US is the rapid increase in the cost of shipping containers since the beginning of the global pandemic. This comes as a result of changes in consumer purchasing patterns and shifting availability from pandemic policies and impact. Sanctions on Russia are expected to have a much lesser impact on supply and demand.
When asked their opinion on the efficacy of sanctions on Russia, the diaspora member said they don't view sanctions as an effective deterrent for Russian actions. Rather, while sanctions may slow GDP growth, Russia simply bolsters national production that strengthens the country long term or finds other trading partners outside of US influence.
According to many scholars, their opinion is true at least in part. While sanctions on Russia have not fully prevented undesirable state aggression, the threat and impact of certain sanctions have produced some results. A notable example of sanction efficacy is when the threat of sanctions prevented the pre-announcement of a Russian military offensive into Ukraine in the summer of 2014. Long term sanctions on Russia have indeed seemed to slow national GDP growth and contributed to a decline in Russian standard of living. Data has shown that sanctions targeted on certain individuals and industries are far more impactful than blanket sanctioning. Additionally, sanctioning from many countries together is also far more effective than sanctioning from the US alone. However, it is unknown if this will be an effective or reliable long term strategy in this case.
Russia pursuing a claim on Ukraine is a difficult and multifaceted issue. This makes the effect of future sanctioning quite unpredictable, and as a diaspora member shared, one must also consider the long history and cultural sentiments of the region when trying to predict outcomes. When asked if the conflict causes tension in the diaspora community here in the DMV, they shared that the issues of their homelands were very rarely a cause of argument. Rather, they expressed a strong sense of pride in being an American first, while still holding respect, sentimentality, and love for their heritage and family abroad. While members of the diaspora may have been Russian or Ukrainian before immigrating, now they are all Americans “who eat, shop, work, and play cards together on a Friday night”.