In our last article, some Russian diaspora members in the US said they don't view sanctions as an effective deterrent for Russian action. Rather, while sanctions may slow GDP growth, Russia plans to simply bolster national production or find other trading partners outside of anti-Russian influence.
In the days since the implementation of heavy US sanctions, this has proven correct.
On Thursday, February 24th, the world witnessed Russia launch a military invasion of Ukraine. This is the largest conventional warfare operation in Europe since World War II. Not currently a member of NATO, Ukraine has few protections afforded them by the international system. Armed, full of anger and disbelief at their new reality, the Ukrainian people are fighting for their home while other countries are placing further sanctions on Russia. Questions like why other countries didn't help Ukraine protect itself in advance with better air defense systems or whether the US can provide more lethal weapons to Ukraine all come back to the same concern. No one wants to provoke Russia – then or now.
But provocation comes in many forms, and some actions just don't hold the same kind of sway over Russia that other countries hope they'd have. For instance, while the US is see-sawing over how giving more anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons may provoke Russia and further involve the US in this conflict, the Biden administration isn't holding back on trying to pressure Russia financially. A slate of asset freezes and sanctions have been rolled out by both the US and other countries, but this may be too little too late.
Economists are saying that Russia won't feel the effects of global sanctions swiftly enough to punish Putin, as it will take years before they fully impact Russian industry. In the meantime, there are many short term fixes and planned industry protections that many say can keep Russia afloat for a good while despite international condemnation.
Now the question is whether or not Russia will find the invasion into Ukraine worth it in the end. Unexpectedly, the Russian offensive has been slowed by fierce Ukrainian resistance. A senior US Defense Official shared that in spite of its great military advantage, the Russian invasion has lost some momentum, indicating that the quick victory Putin was expecting may not come to fruition. Add to that the widespread anti-war protests occurring across Russia, and Putin may find this ordeal more of a headache than he first thought.
In retaliation to what Putin claims are “aggressive statements” made by NATO countries, he has placed Russian nuclear forces on high alert. This pushed Ukraine to agree to talks with Russia on the border of Belarus on February 28th, but the meeting was unsuccessful. As such, the fighting continues. In a historic move, the EU has supported Ukraine by financing and providing arms to the people, but despite fierce conflict, it still isn't enough.
Right now, the Ukrainian government is calling for foreigners to help them take up the fight. The office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Anyone who wants to join the defense of Ukraine, Europe, and the world can come and fight side by side with the Ukrainians. There is no greater contribution which you can make for the sake of peace.”
In response to a US offer to evacuate him, President Zelenskyy stated: "The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride." As Ukrainians rally to their President to protect their home, he declared "we are not putting down arms. We will be defending our country, because our weapon is truth, and our truth is that this is our land, our country, our children, and we will defend all of this. That is it. That's all I wanted to tell you. Glory to Ukraine."