2020 was a severe year for hurricanes on the Atlantic coast. In fact, the 2020 hurricane season was the most active and the fifth costliest Atlantic hurricane season on record. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologists believe that 2021 will show similar weather patterns. While it is unlikely that this year's hurricane season will exceed the severity of last year, time will tell.
Right now NOAA is expecting that the East coast has a 60% chance of a severe hurricane season - a much higher percentage compared to years prior to 2020. For instance, in 2019, the NOAA predicted a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Specific predictions for the 2021 season include 13-20 named storms with 39 mph or higher winds, 6-10 of which are likely to become hurricanes. Of these, we can expect 3-5 major hurricanes up and down the coast. These predictions presently have a 70% confidence rate.
The anticipated rise in hurricane severity has far reaching consequences. Beyond personal damages, hurricanes have a significant impact on tourism, travel, and coastal real estate. As more severe storms hit the Atlantic coast, this will put even greater pressure on tourism. Many people in the DMV vacation in the Caribbean each year. This is a region often hit heavily by tropical storms, so keeping an ear towards weather developments will be particularly important.
Joint Task Force–Leeward Islands continue to support St. Martin and Dominica after Hurricanes Irma (2017) and Maria (2017). At the time of publication, they've transported more than 340,000 pounds of relief supplies, desalinated 83,020 gallons of water, and evacuated more than 2,200 stranded U.S. and foreign citizens. In an effort to prevent disasters like this from happening again, the US government has allocated resources for future disaster mitigation. However, the best offense is a good defense, so personal preparedness is key when traveling.
It is not just travelers to the Caribbean that need to be concerned with evolving weather conditions though. Everyone on the east coast should stay apprised of storm developments, particularly from June 1st to November 30th. If you live in an area that is within a plausible hurricane damage zone, it is imperative to prepare this year. Actionable ways to inform and protect yourself and loved ones include: keeping updated on the weather through mobile alerts, devising a plan to quickly secure yard furniture and decorations, insuring properties, and making advance plans for alternative lodging in the event of inclement weather.
This level of preparedness may become needed each year moving forward as severe hurricane seasons become the new normal. With changes in global temperature, sea level, and weather patterns, the nature of normal hurricane seasons may be altering. Every 10 years, NOAA reevaluates what “normal” weather and climate conditions are for the decade to come. The last three decades evaluated (1991-2020) have shown an increase in the number of named storms and major hurricanes in the Atlantic ocean. The next decade is likely to follow this trend. It is worth noting, however, that NOAA's evaluation of the new weather and climate norms are not predictions, but rather benchmarks of climatological change.